Construction Environmental Capital Law Review (No. 28). Analysis of the impact of centralized land supply on the market.
Published:
2021-10-13
Counting the major events in the real estate market in 2021, there must be "centralized land supply". More than half of this year's centralized land supply has been launched, and the rules of land auctions have been continuously improved. What impact will it have on the market? 1 Centralized land supply proposal Since 2016, the central government has set the tone of "housing, not speculation", and the state has played a "combination fist" to regulate the real estate market. With the emergence of new land kings, the rules of land auctions have been adjusted one after another to curb the excessive rise in land and house prices from the supply side. 2 First round of centralized land supply As of the end of June, the first round of centralized land transfer in 22 cities was completed, with a transaction amount of more than 1 trillion yuan, a transaction area of about 0.11 billion square meters, a transaction floor price of about 9,600 yuan/㎡, and an average premium rate of 15%, showing a relatively high overall heat. From the perspective of specific cities, Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, Suzhou, etc. have relatively low transaction premiums due to strict land auction rules; Chongqing and Wuhan have relatively high transaction premiums due to loose land auction rules. In short, the popularity of plain cities and plots of average quality is still flat, while the core plots of hot cities and non-hot cities with better de-localization are still being scrambled, and the effect of "three stability" is not as good as expected. 3 The second round of centralized land supply and change On July 22, Vice Premier Han Zheng pointed out that it is necessary to speed up the improvement of the "stable land price" working mechanism, optimize the land auction rules, and establish an effective review system for enterprise land purchase funds. On August 11, the Ministry of Natural Resources held a closed-door meeting to adjust the second round of land transfer policies, strictly review the qualifications and funds of bidding companies, and the upper limit of the premium is 15% to ensure a certain profit margin for real estate companies. In addition, the Ministry of Housing and Construction has repeatedly mentioned that efforts should be made to establish a real estate linkage mechanism, promote Beijing's practice of "limiting house prices, controlling land prices, and improving quality", establish a qualification examination system for land purchase enterprises, and establish a mechanism for reviewing and refunding land purchase funds. In the second round of centralized land supply, several cities announced the postponement, and the rules for participating in the auction were adjusted, including limiting land prices, controlling premiums, banning waistcoats, limiting qualifications, checking funds, competing quality, etc. All localities strengthened the linkage of real estate, and the rules for land auction converged. Main rule changes Transfer progress and performance 4 Impact on the market The supply of residential land is based on solving the outstanding housing problems in big cities. Beijing and other big cities are inclined to affordable rental housing in land supply, and further increase the supply of public rental housing, affordable rental housing and shared property housing through centralized construction and allocation. In addition, it is a normal phenomenon that the heat of various urban plots is divided. In addition to the rules of land auctions, it is mainly affected by many factors such as economy, population mobility, and urbanization development. The government sets the rules, and the others are adjusted through the market mechanism, and there is a reasonable stratification from land price to housing price, so as to meet the diversified market demand. In a word, "stable land price, stable house price and stable expectation" are the objectives of real estate market regulation. Therefore, all localities have continuously improved the land auction rules: limiting land price from the supply side, controlling premium to control actual land price, limiting qualification of participating enterprises from the demand side, strictly checking capital sources to control effective demand, and "limiting land price + competition quality + lottery" to guide bidding enterprises to attach importance to development quality and ensure certain profit rate. "No vest + limited number of auctions" to protect more housing enterprises to participate in the interests of land auction, in addition to the state-owned enterprises and head housing enterprises, other regional housing enterprises will also get more opportunities. With the cost of land under control, it brings stable expectations for the real estate market. The author of this article: World Federation Appraisal, the country's leading land, real estate and asset appraisal institution, has a strong appraiser team, holds the qualifications of RICS, MAI, HKIS and other international societies, is committed to continuous professional leadership, deeply interprets the real estate market from a forward-looking perspective, and the content starts with the value of the territory public number, with continuous originality and excitement!
Counting the major events in the real estate market in 2021, there must be "centralized land supply". More than half of this year's centralized land supply has been launched, and the rules of land auctions have been continuously improved. What impact will it have on the market?
1 Centralized land supply proposal
2 First round of centralized land supply
3 The second round of centralized land supply and change
Main rule changes
Transfer progress and performance
4 Impact on the market
Key words:
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